Yes being the second X-wing in a sort time will not help its case and the Doc Ock set is not the best Super Heroes have to offer.

I definitely believe that the Doc Ock set will not be as popular as they predict.

So LEGO predicts that the biggest, most expensive sets they sell will be big sellers by creating free press with a lame list?

I've got to admit skepticism.

Isn't this one of those self-fulfilling prochecy things that toy retailers do though? They bring out their list of top items for the season and everyone goes out and gets them cuz you gotta have the top item under the tree right? So then it actually does end up being a top item simply because they market it to be so.

Well of course X-Wing is going to be a hit. Wasn't it always?

The link to the source is broken. I had to look it up elsewhere (http://www.toynews-online.biz/news/read/lego-unveils-top-seven-items-for-christmas-2016/047073).

I'm not too surprised by this list. City, Friends, Ninjago, Duplo, and Star Wars were the most popular themes last year, and will probably continue to show strong performance this year, so all five sets from those themes are very safe guesses. Spider-Man is one of the most popular Marvel superheroes in terms of merchandise sales, and Super Heroes was one of the top five themes in the United States last year (though not globally), so it's not too far-fetched. And of course, Nexo Knights is a big bang theme, so it's expected to make a big splash.

The Doc Ock set is the set that I think is most doubtful from this list, but even if only the five sets from what were last year's top themes really become top sellers, the predictions will be more than 70% accurate.

Big sets generally tend to be the bigger sellers by how much revenue they bring in, if not by how many units they move. For reference's sake: last year's top selling sets were all larger sets, with the exception of Elsa's Sparkling Ice Castle which took the top slot. But there hasn't been any marketing phenomenon on quite the same scale as Frozen this year that the LEGO Group has capitalized on (now, if there'd been a Pok´emon set this year to capitalize on the Pokémon Go craze, then a smaller set might be more likely to make the list).

To those who have doubts in this list: which sets on the list would you replace, and what would you replace them with?

Pokemon LEGO Ideas?

@ CapnRex101 Will you be doing a review of 76059 Spider-Man: Doc Ock's Tentacle Trap at some stage?

Wow, all the most expensive sets will be the most popular! How convenient!

@ CapnRex101 Awesome, looking forward to it, and to your other reviews as well.

From the Star Wars perspective, it seems a little early to predict this already in comparison to last year. I can only assume it's because the universal appeal of Rogue One sets won't be as much as the Episode VII ones, due to its more 'gritty' war film nature that may or may not have been edited to be more funny and add more character development. That and the story's plot isn't exactly a secret... but the grey X Wing? It's certainly no Kylo Ren's Shuttle.

I agree with TLG on most of the choices from non-licensed themes, Ninjago and City are spot on for me whilst others are good. I just think something like the Nexo Axl Siege tower or the Fortrex carry more appeal than Jestro's Lair.

With regards to Super Heroes, I agree with everyone, the Web Warriors Bridge Battle is miles ahead of anything else that can be mustered, even the Scarecrow Harvest of Fear.

All this... and we are still 5 months from actual Christmas... the mind boggles.

One or two Rogue One sets, Jestro Volcano Lair, Amusement Park Roller Coaster, Ultra Stelth Raider, Airport, Spider Man Ultimate Bridge Battle, Cinderella Casttle.

A lovely accident by Reventon: "Ocks Testicle Trap."

@The Rancor

By the way, the set pictures have been leaked on google......and the Cap'n was *mostly* right about what they would be.

Would the Rogue One Lego sets make it for the Christmas rush? or Thanksgiving maybe?

@Reventon - Ocks testicle trap sounds pretty painful!

@Ayambao presumably they will be released on force friday like last year, so in september.

@CapnRex101: I think part of their reasoning may be this: Web Warriors Ultimate Bridge Battle is by far the most expensive non-D2C Marvel Super Heroes set. It could be that past Marvel Super Heroes sets have sold better overall at the more middle-of-the-road price points than at the higher ones, and in that case the Bridge Battle may be seen as more of a moderate risk rather than a surefire hit — unlike City, Friends, and Ninjago sets at the higher price points, which have a record for being top sellers.

Same sort of goes for Duplo, which is expensive by default. Besides price, another factor in why the My First Rocket is a more likely hit than Around the World is that in the United States, the Around the World set (and in fact, the entire Wildlife series it belongs to) is exclusive to Toys 'R' Us. So it might very well be one of the top LEGO sets at Toys 'R' Us, and I have no doubt it will be in their Holiday Toy Guide, but its overall sales will be limited by that especially if similar exclusivity deals exist in other countries.

And I do not particularly expect Battle of Takodana to be a better holiday seller than the Resistance X-Wing Fighter, both because it's not as new and because in the LEGO Star Wars theme, vehicles tend to be the big sellers. That's part of why that theme has so many ships in general and X-Wings in particular. AFOLs might groan at the prospect of another X-Wing, but kids tend to eat it up.

Does this mean that there will not be a Christmas themed Lego set this year? That is usually one of their big Christmas sellers. So, if they are not predicting it will be a top seller then are they not making one?

I highly doubt that the Resistance X-Wing Fighter will be most popular for Star Wars. Battle of Takodana makes way more sense. I certainly want that set.

I'm surprised that the new Civil War Tanker Truck Take down did not make this list. Besides Lego what other retailer will be selling this set?

I thought the new Octan service station would be on Lego's list for top-sellers.

That list is a prediction for worldwide top sales, isn't it? I would love to see regional top-ten lists, because I would wager that the ones for the US, Europe and Asia would have quite a few interesting differences. Especially Super Heroes sets for example are not really popular over here. Didn't stop me from getting the Ultimate Bridge Battle and Jokerland this year though. But that was a) because I'm a sucker for bridge models and b) the Jokerland set contains many cool and rare parts.
I don't think the Doc Ock set will sell too well over here. Friends otoh is highly popular over here, as is City - and let's not forget Technic. I would guess at least one of the top sellers in Germany to be one of the new Technic sets, like the new Volvo EW160E or the Claas Xerion. Especially the latter I would definitely count as a top ten contender here.

In many places in the world, the blue X-wing is needlessly more expensive than last year's black and orange version. I don't expect it so sell that well at all.

I'm surprised to see the Testicle Trap on the list. I bought it for my daughter just this week at a big discount purely for White Tiger. It reminds me of 6951 Robot Command Center - one of the worst looking Classic Space sets in my opinion.

Ok, what? They're seriously expecting the worst Marvel set of the year to be the best-selling? Explain yourselves, LEGO, because the Bridge Battle and Airport Battle are (going to be) much more popular.
I wasn't particularly impressed with any of those sets, besides the Ultra Stealth Raider... but I don't think teenagers who prefer Technic and Superheroes are really their main audience. The interesting thing here is that all of these sets are very expensive, except for the Doc Ock Tentacle Trap... aside from the fact that many of the smaller sets in those lines are much better, what about Bionicle?

ALSO... I don't understand why they're publishing this list before, you know, December. At least wait for the Rogue One sets and the big Minecraft set.

Yep, seems to me a bit of wishful thinking on LEGO's part. That X-Wing is over-priced for a follow-up set. If it had come out first, when people were still impressed by shots of the blue X-Wings skimming across the lake in the SW7 trailer, it would have shifted like hot-cakes, and then they could have sold Poe Dameron's custom one as a desirable follow-up. But this way round, with the DVD kicking around below RRP, it's just not that appealing any more. Admitedly I just bought one, but only via a 3-for-2 offer.

That Ninjago set it definitely going to be top of a lot of fans' wish-lists, even if it is derivative of a previous set. But that Spider-Man one is definitely a case of: "how on Earth are we going to sell this?" "I know - tell all the parents they're going to sell out by September!" "Haha - suckers!"

No mention of Rogue One sets? I'd imagine when those are released they'll be some of the top holiday sellers.

Rogue One is going to sell like hot cakes I think.

Heck, I want the Ultra Stealth Raider now! I could see that and Jestro's Volcanic Lair being popular with kids to begin with, and I agree with you that the airport set seems a surefire winner both in terms of kid appeal and in looking like a nice substantial set to a parent who's trying to choose a big present.

I'm not so sure about the amusement park; it seems less substantial than Heartlake School even though it actually has more pieces, but then, I suppose that's why Lego put it in the list in the first place - as others have said, the whole thing's just promo, so it makes sense to include sets that look particularly expensive for what they are, and will need some extra hype to get adults to buy them...

I Think That Most Of These Will Be True. I Think Jestros Volcano Lair And The Friends Roller Coaster Will Be The Most Popular, But I Don't think Doc Ock's Tentacle Trap Or The Resistance X-Wing Fighter Will Be, Since There Are Better Star Wars Sets For The Price Of The X-Wing, And Doc Ock's Tentacle Trap Isn't The best Set Lego has To offer For That Price.