How many collectable minifigs does LEGO manufacture?
Posted by Huw,
Is there a shortage of Disney minifigures? They have only been in the shops a few days but already I am hearing reports that they are hard to find. My Local Smyths had a display unit for them but it was filled with Series 15 and older yesterday presumably because they had sold out already, and John Lewis in Southampton had about 10 packs left from one case on Sunday.
Have you had trouble finding them? Has LEGO manufactured enough to supply what retailers have ordered?
I am told that the company has cancelled orders that independent toy shops in the UK have placed because it does not have enough to meet the demand from supermarkets and other large retailers, and an Australian retailer who posts here has said that there is just 'one drop' of them there so once they are gone, they are gone for good.
All this got me thinking, how many CMFs does LEGO manufacture? Of course we will never be told official numbers but we can have fun extrapolating...
So, let's start with the UK. My local small branch of Tesco had two boxes yesterday. I would usually expect to see a display case containing four or five when they are first delivered. Let's assume then that every supermarket and large toy retailer received just two cases.
I estimate there to be around 5,000 outlets stocking them, based on Tesco having 3,000 branches, Sainsbury's 600, The Entertainer, TRU and Smyths something like 200 branches between them, which makes, let's say 4000. Let's add on another 1000 for all the other supermarkets, WH Smiths etc. to make it a round 5000.
Therefore, we could assume that 10,000 boxes, at least, are being sold in the UK. That makes it 600,000 individual minifigs.
Now, so we can extrapolate the numbers further without counting stores in every country by using the population of the UK: if we round that down a bit to 60 million it makes a nice round figure of 1 minifig per 100 people.
If we now extrapolate that to Europe, a population of 742 million, at a ratio of 1 minifig per 100 people, that makes it 7.4 million minifigs manufactured for Europe alone.
Add those made for the USA and Canda (pop. 361 million), 3.6 million, we end up with 11 million. Let's add 4 million on for the rest of the world to make it 15 million.
Going from 2 boxes in my local Tesco to a manufacturing run of 15 million is a bit of a stretch, I agree, but it's probably in the right ballpark. What do you think? Does that number seem feasible? More importantly, is it enough?
(Population numbers source: here)
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All I know is this past series was bad for Targets around me as they did not get them into the store until recently, like about a week ago. The latest I have seen a CMF series in a Target after its initial release ever.
Lego.com in the US has them back in stock. I'm pretty sure Lego marked them as sold out because they didn't want to mail them out with the free shipping that they were offering for May the 4th.
let's hope this potential shortage is an "exo-suit shortage" and not a "research institute" type shortage.
Or rather, let's hope there is no such thing as a shortage and lego was planning to release them sligthly later and are holding them back temporarily or something.
What?! We aren't going to spread rumors about the mini figures being recalled?!?!
15 million figures means 1 figure for every 0.002 people sounds like a shortage, but considering every human (7.125 billion global population) cannot afford nor have interest in these figures, it's not a ratio to consider. It would take more time to determine of those who have paying jobs can buy these figures, which might make the ratio much nicer since there would be less people from the population who can buy these. With that being said, retailers in my area (East Coast USA) seem to have a shortage, from Target to Toys R Us. neither have the boxes in any capacity, and Target received an endcap of Series 15 about 2 weeks ago and are now removed from the shelves as of yesterday. Before that they still had 2 boxes of Series 14. Toys R Us had Series 15 about a week before official launch date, but during the series run always had at least 1 box per store. So when news broke that Target had them early, I was in disbelief since they haven't had them before launch date before, and even now don't have them on the floor. I would order from LEGO but I want to be sure I don't have 5 Peter Pans when I need 1 (although 5 little green aliens would be fine).
Two local TRUs still have full boxes near me. I assume a second shipment after the initial two boxes they had out last week before the release. Only found at one Target out of four I frequent. Only found at two of the four WalMarts near me. Like many, my Target stores are still sitting on 14 and 15. That may be holding them back from placing them on shelves. Not sure about LEGO stores other than reports that some east coast stores had sold out in a matter of hours that Sunday. I still these being like any other wave though, after the rush, they'll be everywhere all summer long just as the Simpson figures hung around.
Don't give the hoarders and resellers any more incentive! I buy 1 of each and leave the rest for others to enjoy; I don't grab the box(es) and hope to profit off others.
I would be shocked if there is really just one shipment of the Disney minifigures, but we'll just have to wait and see if they hang around all summer or if the people who bought up that initial batch can make a fortune selling on eBay.
No wonder my genie was missing his ponytail piece. I think it's going to be 5 months before i ever get my replacement from lego...
I have never seen any in any store. I have checked 3 Toys R Us near me and 3 Targets. All the targets seem to have is series 14.
We had the same thing with the Lego movie figures in the end they were not hard to find, also saying they are hard to find can be a self fulfilling prophecy.
I expect most stocks will be replenished after a while and this is simply a case of LEGO failing to anticipate the initial demand. The same has been true of several sets and Collectable Minifigure series in recent years.
Supermarkets are completely ruthless about thier use of space. Lego represents a tiny proportion of a supermarket's sales. The minifigs stay on the shelves for 4-6 months and if you told any large supermarket that they had to buy all their stock in one go they'd laugh in your face. More likely they'll charge Lego for shelf space, and insist on full sale or return, 3 day resupply and pentlty discounts if the line sells slowly.
(And before someone says, but Lego are a massive company, they're about 10% the size of P&G or Unilever and they trade with supermarkets on terms like these).
CapnRex, we can't use logic and reason here! We need to make up news to get clicks! Clickbait FTW!!!
My store had four cases first put out on 5/1 and has already sold through most of that. Had customers asking if there was a limit the first day. (Held back 2 of the cases for later just in case someone tried to buy them all)
Four cases is less than my store got for the 1st Simpsons series (almost a dozen), but more than the 2nd (only 2 cases for the entire summer). Surely there will be restocks, LEGO can't have underestimated the selling power of Disney merchandise.
@The Green Brick Giant - This article provides an educated guess at the total number of Disney minifigures currently in circulation and makes no attempt to spread falsehoods regarding a shortage of the product. I like to think that Brickset has more integrity than to 'make up news' as you put it.
Clearly not enough
What about weird late releases? One of my local Targets had a load of Lego Movie CMFs out at the register a few months ago. I'm assuming they had a box in the back that they just forgot to put out, but it was still weird seeing them two years later. (Got me an extra Emmett and Mermaid for fun.)
Well, with that numbers, taking in count that each box has 3 complete series, there would be 750.000 complete series of Disney minifigures. I think it's probably not enough
Yes, thank you Capn'. I don't intend to scaremonger or spread lies, I just based it on my observations, a mere five days after their release and as others have said there could well be more tranches on the way to stores.
But I did think it would be fun and/or interesting to speculate how many have been manufactured and see if anyone agrees with my rather simplistic calculations.
Hence the post...
John Lewis on Oxford Street had sold out of them by Tuesday, but lots of stock in today, lots of people searching, Buzz is clearly very popular.
We still require the Alien and Daisy, Alien will be easy to find, but not having any luck finding Daisy (or even a Donald).
All in all a brilliant series, looking forward to series 2
18.2 million produced in three stages, 50% (9.1m), 30% (5.4m), 20% (3.6m), 3 months production.
That's my guess give or take a few hundred either way ;-D
I suspect this is a short term supply issue. In German, Switzerland and Austria they get the German Football figures first, and then get the Disney figures in July. Or that is what I am told.
If I'm running the campaign for LEGO...or Disney for that matter, I'm going to make damn sure that the LEGO store in Downtown Disney doesn't run out of figures during the initial release. Same goes for other point of sale locations throughout the park. If that means that distribution elsewhere is lighter than normal, so be it. Then, if the demand remains super high at the Disney locations, as I'm sure it will, I'm going to continue to prioritize those locations and let all other markets trickle throughout the release wave. I have read plenty of shortage reports from all over, except Downtown Disney. I'm thinking it's less of a production issue and more of a distribution result. I may be wrong, but it seems logical to me.
Stock only just coming in to my locals in kent and london. Ordered a box (8 expected in this week) from TRU but that hasn't arrived in store yet. So I picked up a box from Tesco near work earlier today when I saw them, just in case there's a problem with the TRU order. They had another 3 full boxes (2 still sealed) on display.
There were a good number of boxes in Legoland Billund last week and the individual packs were in the 3 packs for 59DKK (or whatever it may be).
Just a quick point regarding store numbers - I think the Sainsbury number is about right while the Tesco number should possibly be about 750-800 and thus brining the estimate down.
Probably the biggest challenge for Lego & Disney is the the cross-over fans so Huw's original calculation of 15million might be enough but if the number is lower it might not cover it.
Around me in Solihull/Birmingham there seems to be a dire shortage. It looks like the local Sainsburys only got one box and they were all gone in less than 4 days...
The Disney CMF already been sold 3 weeks before may 2nd in Belgium. I've got mine from a friend.
Aren't these always somewhat difficult to find when they first come out? I'm sure it being Disney also helps pump up the demand...
Been to the Lego shop Leeds tonight and they has loads. Managed to feel out a full set with ease.
From the store I normally order a box from with no problem
"LEGO Disney Minifigures Update
Thank you for your recent back order for a box of LEGO Disney Minifigures.
Today we have been advised by LEGO Australia that there will not be any follow up stock made available beyond the initial supply. This is an unprecedented announcement as there has always been stock made available for Minifigure releases after launch for at least the last 5 years.
LEGO have not completely ruled out that stock may become available sometime in the future, however we are not comfortable in holding your payment for an extended period, and so we will begin refunding back orders immediately.
We completely understand your frustration with this news, and we are also equally frustrated by this sudden change in supply. "
Of course nothing is set in stone.
Has anyone noticed the figures feel lighter? Are they using a different plastic?
Wow...I looked at the images on the link supplied with this article. The quality of the minifigs doesn't look to good. It looks like they are scratched up and the printing looks poor. One can only hope that it is because they were just prototypes; otherwise, TLG's quality is dropping off a cliff.
I was on 1. may in Legoland Billund, they sold a full box with 60 for 160 Euro. That same price like the offer 3 for 60 DKR wich is about 8 Euro. So a bit cheaper than at Lego online.
Think they had about 30 - 40 full set boxes aviable.
At Lego Store the have in stock, but same like online they only sell 20 pack at once.
Im awaiting the soccer serie...belive there will be a big run on them!
Supermarkets near me still have stock of The Simpsons series 2 minifigures, so… whatever.
Keep in mind that Lego is just as interested in making money as the resellers are, so there'll be stock as long as there is demand, until they have to make way for the next CMF wave.
All the supermarkets near me (Exeter, UK) seem to have loads - and don't seem to be going down in numbers fast. I had a little feel and found most of them, but only picked up a Syndrome (which is fantastic by the way!)
Whole cases by the tills in The Disney Store in Birmingham if anyone is struggling nearby.
For what it's worth, our local LEGO store will be getting 12 boxes in on Tuesday. I'd hardly think there's a shortage. Keep in mind that this was also May the Fourth weekend, which would be a higher priority for TLG.
They don't even have them in my local Tesco yet. :(
Don't have them in tesco or local toy shops here yet, but I was delighted to receive all 18 in the post today thanks to minifiguremaddness.com and the coupon posted here.
I think this line of CMFS has a far larger appeal since it's a "pure" disney thing. So it's been drawing a lot of people who wouldn't normally buy lego. My stores got got 2 boxes each, and was there when they opened when I left with my set there was already people being turned because there wasn't enough figures. Employees were told to wait 7 days until purchasing their own sets.
I imagine they will be restocked eventually. Although most of the stores near me have yet to receive any Series 15 figs. I have gotten a few of the Disney figs, but I had to do a bit of traveling...
Just got me thinking. Going back to series 10 does any of the large minifig traders/feelers know a rough odds of how many boxes it took to snag a Mr Gold. Times that number by 5000 to see how many cases were produced.
And in the theme of this thread by guesstimating for the popularity of Disney im going to say multiply that number by 2.35 for the production number of the Disney series
New waves of mini figures in my area always sell really well. In a few weeks they are widely available and easier to get.
I just picked up 6 figures today at Target and yesterday I saw 4 new cases at TRU.
The supposed short run reminds me of the cuusoo curiosity Rover: one run and then nothing else.
"Today we have been advised by LEGO Australia that there will not be any follow up stock made available beyond the initial supply. This is an unprecedented announcement as there has always been stock made available for Minifigure releases after launch for at least the last 5 years."
Really?
Wow. Like, what did the Australian market do to annoy Lego that much? If it's not the drastically-inflated prices, we just don't get stuff. I understand that there's a smaller population base here (seriously, most of the continent is unlivable desert), but do they really need to treat us like an after-thought, so visibly? Sigh.
I was at my local Target and there were plenty of Disney CMFs. It probably helps that I live in a less-populated area, though.
Found plenty at my local LEGO Store today. I don't think these will be around for several months, though, and I think we’ll be less likely to see them at other retailers, like Target, Walmart, and Meijer (in the U.S.). They’re only getting more popular, more collectible, and Disney means they’ll all get scooped up.
And they are back in stock online... what a surprise! Not. Who would have thought the day after free shipping ended...
Barnes and Noble usually has them. Check there if you have one near you.
zusammengebaut.de is reporting that the minifigs are only available online or in a Lego store at the moment and will not be available in other stores until June/July. Some stores already had a few boxes and sold them prematurely, so when those are gone they won't be replenished until later.
I don't know if this only applies to Germany or if it's a worldwide occurrence.
Fyi, on the second i found them in a local deartment store that I would imagine is treated like an independent toy shop, frankly I don't think that many people in the area know they have a toy department so it's normaly fairly quiet. They had at least 4 cases delivered by my reckoning - there were 2 sealed cases on the shelf, one opened which looked to have more packetsin than normal, so i suspect half a case sold the first so the remaining figures added to thext box.
I think a lot of people are just seeing them selling fast and extrapolating the explaination that there isn't enough supply for demand, which fuels more buying. It does happen a lot with the CMFs but with the added draw for Disney collectors with no knowledge of LEGO in general I think it's more of a case of sales being hiher than usual, selling out quicker, but will inevitably be restocked.
I can't speak for other Lego stores, but at ours, staff were initially limited to 6 per week due to the expected demand. That has already been increased to 18 per week. They're popular, but not so much that we need to ration them.
I have never had any problems buying CMF, eventually the stores always received new stock.
I work at Smyths. We only just received our stock of these silly things on Wednesday. I personally put two boxes out yesterday. Up until then we've only had CMF 15 and a few older wave 14, Simpsons CMFs on the end of til point standee (which has a Disney CMF header...)
The problem only relates to Suppliers not receiving the figures prior to the official Lego embargo to NOT put stocks out on shelves before May 1st...this means things are trickling into stores very slowly now probably because its all mixed into other stock suppliers send...anyhow, at £2.49 each I shan't be buying them...however, if I could get a whole case I would sell one or two sealed cases...maybe keep one to sell a few years from now.
Yeah, haven't seen these CMF in my area of Germany. With the Soccer CMFs coming out soon, I wonder if we'll even see the Disney figures here.
My local Lego store had plenty. Already got a full set, going back later to get some for friends/family as they imposed a 18 pack limit.
In Spain we dont have yet =(
I know our local Tesco have 4 full boxes in stock with another due to be delivered in to store tonight... but they haven't been put out on the shop floor yet!!
I managed to find some in my local Sainsburys & Toymaster with the latter offering a entire box for £150. (No chance). They are about, you just got to look & find them :-) although I heard this in Toys r Us.
Kid - "Dad, I want Captain Hook!"
Dad - "Hold it, I'm trying to feel for him!" Lol
I bought two Disney Minifigures today in my BR (a toy store in Europe). I looked on the back of the bag and also on the paper inside. When you look after copyrights on the bag you'll see The Incredibles logo. Why is that on? I don't understand, why we can see this logo and not one of the others? Someone who can answer me this? It's a little bit strange my question, but I want to know why.
Kylo - I noticed this too, I imagine it is because it is on Mr Incredibles top and has a copyright/trademark registered for it. None of the other figures have such markings
MC1987: Yaeh, that can be true. You're right. But it's still strange, because there's already the copyright of Disney•Pixar, and The Incredibles is an Pixar film.
Same thing happened in the U.S. with CMF 15 but did anyone acknowledge it at the time? But raise the alarm if anyone's denied Disney. So, how long before Disney buys up Lego?
Initial Euphoria is what I think it is. My local Lego store told me they are getting 12 boxes next week. I expect this would be available easily starting next week as the supplies get replenished.
hello from france
Lyon lego store in France out of stock today 28 box of 60 fig sold in 2 days 2.99 € each fig
no new box before next week
As I've said before, its the SUPPLY CHAIN, NOT how many have been manufactured...I work at Smyths...
My local Walmart told me they had 86 Cases in the back which just came off the truck. Going tomorrow morning to get some figures. I think its just being shipped to stores this week from the main warehouse. And my local target only had the Series 15 big box of 120 bags.
It's going to be a nightmare locating these in Korea, considering Lego is even more scarce here. We haven't even had new X-Wing stock since Christmas!
I don't know whether anyone is reading this thread still but I found that my local TRU (Poole, UK) had about 6 boxes on display, probably 5 boxes worth of minifigures left in them. But staff there and at a local department store said they weren't getting any more shipments.
Note to some people out there though: please consider the other collectors (or even kids) out there when you go "I'll just buy a whole box so I have a full set" because it's cleaving into the amount of minifigures actually available to people before they go for sale online. Is it really that hard to just feel for the characters you want/need?
I saw two open boxes today at our local Big W (department store) some signs of rummaging, but I managed to find Malificent easily enough.
Been in my local tesco and they had at least 45 full boxes on shop floor.
I've managed to buy 13 full boxes from around town between kmart and big w
One word - scalpers.
There is a shortage in all the stores near me
My local Target has rarely kept minifigures in stock ever since The Lego Movie figures were released. This would give the impression (assuming that they've not changed their ordering habits) that The Lego Movie made collecting Lego and/or minifigures a lot more popular and there are shortages. In fact, I haven't seen minifigures actually in stock there in at least 6 months.
...but yet if I drive 90 minutes to The Lego Store, they always have multiple cases in stock.
I think you're making far too many assumptions based upon very limited data. This article is very misleading.
However, I think it's clear that Lego either needs to increase production to make these figures easier to find OR needs to make them available for a longer period of time. (Maybe even let the releases overlap?)